Building foundation

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Today’s work.

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Thunderace 2015

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Thunderace spring ride. And it works OK. Leaking carbs are solved with rebuild kits and it has new front tire. Pirelli diablo Rosso 2.  Exup is still missing, so little hesitant at 3500 area. New inch higher clip-on handlebars made it quite comfortable, but they are but shaky as the bars are so light they don’t dampen the vibration like the originals. I may need heavier bar ends. JP

How to use e-mail at work

​Many companies have noticed that using e-mail is inefficient. Main problems and solutions with mail are:

If the data would be in the right place, you could delete all your mails and history today and continue work without any major issues. If you cannot do it, you have started to use mail as information storage.

1. It multiplies work. When person A sends a message for 10-1000 people and that mail is containing something that needs to be saved for future usage and in many cases saved to different folder. Every message is then needing activity from the recipient and also consuming space, as every mail is copied.

-If you are noticing that you need to organize your mails, you are probably receiving information through mail that should not be sent to you by mail. The mail is not the final resting place of data, it should be stored to some other place. Mail should be used only to notify that such data exists. And in many cases it becomes unnecessary even to send the mails if such places exits.

-You can influence the amount other people need to organize mail, by not sending guides or anything that needs to be saved for future usage. Don’t send guides to 10-100 people. Write the guide and save it to Forum or some common place where guides should be. Then you could inform your group that you have writen that guide and where it is. This way they don’t have to save the mail. Also the guide can be updated. If the mail sent guide is updated, you need to send it again, and every participant need to update their saved version of your guide. If your group receives new employee, they don’t have the mail history, They are missing all the guides and mails! So it’s easy to understand that any information that is distributed through mail should not be stored in the mail. It’s old and it could have changed since. Only way to have up to date information is to have common places where the information is stored.

If someone in your group or section anyway sends guide by mail. Do NOT save the mail!, store the guide/information to some server or common place or write article to wiki and send a response that you have created a place for this data and here it is.

2. People that are not in the mail distribution have no way to follow it or find the solution afterwards. If the discussion would have happened in a Forum, the information and solution could be found with a search years from now. This is easily noticeable at the internet. If you buy a motorcycle and you notice some issue, you go to the internet and search for issue you are having. You quickly find some information and probably the solution for it. You usually find it from some forum or blog. What would have happened if that discussion would have happened in closed loops, like small mail distribution? You would not have those mails, you would not have any way to know that the discussion has happened, you would have no way to know even who has dealt with such issue. This is the way it happens inside the company. Somebody has to know who knows the solution. somebody has to have the mails saved and organized. New employee has no quick way to find information, because it’s inside the mail system and not stored properly.

3. Don’t answer to big mail distributions unless you have something to contribute.

“this has to be solved asap!” is not a contribution. Not if you are sending it to the whole distribution. If you are working as a manager that needs to focus the action, you can send it to the one person that needs the push.

4. Follow the mails you are sending and receiving and think that should they be sent by mail in the first place.

5. Create a history, with mail everyone has their own history, some people save mails and some don’t, everyone has their own history, some have organized history, and some have cluttered history. With common places to save the information and by using forums, everyone has the same history data. And also new employees can access this history data.

6. When Forums and common places for work data are established, it is much easier to substitute persons during holidays or sick leaves as the data is open.

7. Good practice is also not to use the work mail to any other activity. Create firstname.familyname@gmail.com / @outlook.com mail for your personal ‘business’ and mailing your relatives. Also create nickname@gmail.com and use it to register to all the internet services, this way if the mail address is leaked to junk email providers, you don’t get your official mails cluttered with junk and it provides better anominity.

8. Mail is a great tool for sharing information, but it should be just that. You should not store information in it. You should be able to just let the mails flow the past without deleting them. It’s possible even to set up auto deletion, that delete all the mails that are older then 1 month and you should be fine if the information is stored correctly. (Not stored in the mail, store it somewhere others can see it too).

Br James Parus

Sugar is bad for you

Sugar_is_bad

Here’s my opinion why sugar is bad for you. In the graph you see three different diet’s. The first represents normal balanced diet without a sugar, in this case you get enough minerals and vitamins and fiber. You are not gaining or losing weight. Your body is happy and not forcing you to eat more.

Second represents situation where you have filled a big part of your daily food intake with empty sugar energy, it has no nutrition, it has no fiber, vitamines or minerals. Your body is starving from nutrition point of view, even it’s getting enough energy. You could think your diet is healthy because your body weight is ideal, but it’s not.

Third diet is a diet where you eat enough food for good nutrition, vitamin, fiber and minerals, but you also eat sugar, and you gain weight slowly but steadily.

So looking at this it’s very easy to understand that there is no safe way to use sugar. Only solution is to use it in very small amounts. this is the only way that it doesn’t interfere with your nutrition level or weight.

JP

Great related article about sugar.

http://www.whale.to/a/dufty.html

Trade probability

Some people claim that they can make market entries with 70% accuracy. How ever what ever the entry probability is, it is not the same as probability to WIN. This is because people use stop loss and exit strategies that change the outcome.

Let’s say you can make entries that are 70% right, you are right that the market is low for the day and for the week. You are right that there is a upside, and it’s going to be reached within couple of days. So the entry is very profitable, everyone should take that 70% entry.

The problem comes how people use it. They calculate that they can risk only little portion of their account. The account is small and this stop loss is then placed very close to the market action(noise). The trade entry probability has no change to reach the 70% change because it has 90% change to hit the stop loss before it can launch up from that level.

You would reach the full 70% probability only without stop loss, or with very wide stop loss. You need a stop loss, there is no doubt about that, but you have to understand how it effects and destroys your accuracy.

So you need a stop loss that protects you, but doesn’t lower the entry probability too much.

To make a good stop, you need:

-A good entry, prefer buying during low days or after days of market going down, also buying close to support levels gives better entry points as you can place the stop loss under that support. If you buy during high days, your stop loss is going to be hit if the next day is down.

-The stop needs to be bigger than the market noise. or the stock noise. If the stock moves 20cents up and down everyday. You cannot expect to make a good entry with 10cent stop loss.

-Problem is that when people take losses, they start to limit their losses, so if the stop loss is hit couple of times, they tighten the stops and make it even more probable to be hit. At the end they have totally destroyed their accuracy with that too tight stop. It’s fundamental to understand how your stop effects your accuracy. Changing your stop is changing your accuracy. You may be limiting your losses, but destroying your system accuracy to a point where it doesn’t work anymore.

-also stop loss needs to be determined by the trade time, if you are trading intra day or just couple of days, you can use quite tight stops, but you cannot use the same stops if you want to hang on for the long term. Just look at the 2-5 year chart and see what kind of stop loss would have kept you in the market and how little entry points your current stop loss level would have provided when you look at this long period chart.

-The market doesn’t know your account size, so setting stop loss according to your account size is not working very well. You should determine the position size so that the loss is not too big for your account size. If the stock needs 10% stop loss, you cannot use so big position. You needs to small position that  10% stop loss hit is not going to effect your portfolio more than 1-2%. If you try to enter that stock with 2% stop loss, that stop is going to be hit. Your entry accuracy has very little to do with it.

-JP

Coin flip trading myth

Coin flip trading Myth. Some examples show that if you limit your losses and have good risk to profit ratio, like 1:3, you can make money with stock selection entries that are selected by a coin flip.

This is a myth and it doesn’t work. Usually because:
-setting 10cent stop loss and waiting for 30cent move to exit is not a coin flip. It’s much more likely to hit the stop, compared to reaching the 30cent profitable exit. (10cent exit and 10cent stop would be a coin flip).

-most probably it’s 3x more likely that the stop is hit before the exit. So this method doesn’t make any money.
Even if the wins are 3x as large as stops, you make much more stop loss hits compared to wins.

-This is even more worse if the stop loss is placed within the daily ‘noise’, so 10cent move is very likely, as 30cent move would need a real ‘change’ in value. Stock would have to move positively to your favor to reach the exit, but the stop
could be reached without the stock really moving. it would hit it with just market fluctuations within the noise.

The lesson of the coin flip is that entry probability is not the whole trade probability, The exit and stop strategy changes your probability. You can take 50/50 entry method and ruin it with too tight stops that are hit by noise before the trade can actually work. The whole probability is possible 20/80 with too tight stops.

JP

10 things what to consider when buying stocks

I have been investing and sometimes even trading for some years, I cannot call my self successful, but I have learned some things and I have issue to even remember those lessons, so I though I write them down.

if you want to buy stocks, any stock, consider always these things. It’s going to keep you out of many losses and out of common pitfalls.

Print it out and consider these steps every time before you buy any financial instrument.

1. Is this a game / play, Are you after a quick buck?( I recommend not to do it)

2. Is this a good company? (don’t buy bad companies), who uses the products, would you buy their product, do you see people around you using their products? is future trend or technological progress good for this company or bad?

3. What do you know about this company?

4. what is the dividend yield? (could you keep the stock for ever just for the dividend).

5. Are you at the top of your game? stress situation? have you followed the market recently? How mentally fit are you ? How much do you know about stocks?

6. is the market and/or the stock in a Uptrend or downtrend? what is the direction of the long time trend and is this trade against it or with the trend. (avoid against the trend trades).

7. What stop loss level would you use? When do you cut your losses?

8. When do you sell it? what is the target? or do you keep it for ever for the dividend?

9. Is this day a good day to buy it? are we up or down for the week, is this week a down or up week. Are we at the top of the channel or at the bottom(every stock has a channel where it travels). Buy at the bottom half of the channel, it’s easier to set stop loss, and set the stop loss below the channel. if you set it in the channel, you are going to be shaken out.

10. Is this money free for this use? can it stay in the stock for a long time? How big position is it safe to take compared to the total account size, so even if this company would fail, you would still live with it.

That’s the most important part.

Follow up instructions:

When you are in the trade remember to follow it, set the stop loss straight after you have bought the stock. Don’t change the stop loss. Don’t even raise it too fast.

Log in to google alerts and Make a alert for this stock, so you get mail every day or every week what’s going on with the company.

if the company has any hint or rumor about financial mess or counting practice errors, sell it immediately.

Account handling quide:

1. Don’t ever use too much of position to one company, it could fail.

2. Use stop loss when ever feasible, it’s mentally easier.

3. Save more money to the account always. What ever happens, just add money every month. And try not to loose more then you can save, if you loose, wait that the saving repairs the hole. Don’t accelerate trading after losses, stop the trading to cope.

JP

I can modify this if I remember something else.