Previously when someone wanted to start a business, it was most often to develop a new product and produce it. This kind of entrepreneurship created work. Now many companies are actually in business to destroy work. To make some business obsolete or automate the work so there is less need for people in this work.
Automation is the way to go and I know there is no stopping it. But the believe that new jobs will be created forever to replace the lost jobs is a pipe dream. Agriculture was the first area to be automated. Jobs in agriculture have been decimated. Still it produces more food than ever before. This was one of the first areas of basic human needs to be automated. In many countries only 3% of workforce work in agriculture anymore. Human work is leveraged with big machines and diesel oil. How ever machines that are able to leverage manual labor have no intelligence.
Today when machines have simple decision making skills, they have started to replace workforce in areas that need little intelligence. Machines can make small daily decisions that are always the same from day to day. And they do this without ever getting tired and they don’t need rest, holidays or pensions.
What is going to happen is that machines slowly develop to handle even higher IQ jobs. Human IQ stays the same. At this point machine IQ is probably 70, Machines are still idiots, but they are hard working and predictable idiots that can be programmed. At this point they can replace most works that would have needed IQ of 70, like packaging stuff of working in assembly like doing one part assembly.
When machines now develop slowly up to IQ of 80-90, they can do most of the work man can do. Most jobs don’t demand creativity of high self awareness. Even if they are now done by people with IQ’s of 100, they don’t need it all. Hard working, programmable, predictable outcome is more important and it’s hard to beat a machine in these areas.
Creative and special jobs will last probably almost forever, because human can always invent something new. So IQ 110 Jobs and higher will last for a long time.
The whole working life is going to change. At some point there is going to be so many people unemployed or at pension that their number is enough to change the political system in democratic countries. They are going to vote to power parties that promise citizen pay. Minimum pay that is payed to every citizen, even if they don’t work. This will provide basic housing and food. And many people will live at this level. People that wan’t more and have the IQ to do it, can certainly do work and invent new ideas or work at high IQ jobs or even at some unpleasant jobs that machines cannot handle. And so they can reach higher level of living by selling their time.
People that have no jobs will have to find new meaning that is not from goals set by their employer. People need to develop ways to spend their time to pursuit their own goals. Self development.
The outcome is pure math. Machines are developing faster than people. Human IQ cannot raise much at 50 years, but automation is going to do most work in 50 years.
JP
James Parus research inc. 